Private Saving and Its Determinants: The Case of Pakistan

Despite a gradual increase over the past twenty years, the rate of private saving in Pakistan remains low as compared with many of the developing economies in Asia. Empirical analysis of the long-run behaviour of saving in Pakistan suggests that financial deepening, though still at a relatively early stage of development, accounted for much of the rise in private saving. In contrast with the experience in the economies of Southeast Asia, where the demographic structure of the population changed significantly over the past two decades, high rates of population growth have kept the age structure of Pakistan’s population virtually unchanged and appear to account for the disparity between the saving rates in Pakistan and Southeast Asia. Hence, an increase in the long-run rate of private saving will likely require further financial development and a decline in the growth rate of the population.

Long-run Determinants of Private Saving Behaviour in Pakistan

Compared to the rapidly-growing economies of Southeast Asia, the growth performance of the Pakistan economy was significantly weaker during the 1970s and 1980s. While the Southeast Asian countries made substantial progress in improving living standards, the average standard of living, as measured by the GNP per capita, was virtually stagnant in Pakistan over this period. Much of the difference in economic performance between Pakistan and the Southeast Asian countries is often attributed to the low rates of saving and investment in Pakistan.1 Indeed, the differences in rates of domestic investment are often attributed to the differences in rates of domestic saving. Hence, the disparity in the growth performance between Pakistan and the Southeast Asian countries over the past two decades relates to the differences in saving rates, and an understanding of the fundamental determinants of saving in Pakistan assumes critical importance. This paper reviews trend developments in the private saving behaviour in Pakistan, and compares these trends with those seen in the Southeast Asian economies during the period since 1970. Using co-integration analysis, the long-run properties of Pakistan’s saving rate are examined, with a view to identifying the main determinants of saving. The principal finding is that about one-half of the trend increase in saving appears to be related to financial development and deepening. In contrast to the results obtained by Faruqee and Husain (1994) and Husain (1995) for the Southeast Asian countries, demographics appear not to have played an important role in determining saving behaviour in Pakistan, possibly because high rates of population growth during the past three decades resulted in a virtually unchanged demographic structure of the population.

A SAM-based Multiplier Model to Track Growth-Poverty-Inequality Nexus in Bangladesh

This paper offers a social accounting matrix (SAM) based analysis leading to a better understanding of the way various agents in the real economy interact, the way socio-economic groups make their living, the channels through which demand driven interventions may affect the poor, and the potential growth-poverty-inequality nexus. This is done in two steps. First, the paper reveals the economic structure of Bangladesh with a SAM framework where the macro (national accounts and input-output table) and micro (national surveys) data are juxtaposed under a unified data matrix to portray the meso level interactions of various economic agents, that is production sectors, factors of production, household groups, and other institutions. Subsequently, the SAM is used to develop a multiplier simulation model, which enables tracking and quantifying the nature and extent of the linkages among the demand driven shocks (stimuli), economic growth, income generation, and concomitant poverty and distribution implications from the perspective of different socio-economic groups in Bangladesh.Social Accounting Matrix (SAM); Multiplier Model; Growth-Poverty-Inequality;

Black hole solutions in 2+1 dimensions

We give circularly symmetric solutions for null fluid collapse in 2+1-dimensional Einstein gravity with a cosmological constant. The fluid pressure $P$ and energy density $\rho$ are related by $P=k\rho$ $(k\le 1)$. The long time limit of the solutions are black holes whose horizon structures depend on the value of $k$. The $k=1$ solution is the Banados-Teitelboim-Zanelli black hole metric in the long time static limit, while the $k<1$ solutions give other, `hairy' black hole metrics in this limit.Comment: 8 pages, RevTeX (to appear in Phys. Rev. D) References to Mann and Ross, and Mann, Chan and Chan adde

Dimension-Dependence of the Critical Exponent in Spherically Symmetric Gravitational Collapse

We study the critical behaviour of spherically symmetric scalar field collapse to black holes in spacetime dimensions other than four. We obtain reliable values for the scaling exponent in the supercritical region for dimensions in the range $3.5\leq D\leq 14$. The critical exponent increases monotonically to an asymptotic value at large $D$ of $\gamma\sim0.466$. The data is well fit by a simple exponential of the form: $\gamma \sim 0.466(1-e^{-0.408 D})$.Comment: 5 pages, including 7 figures New version contains more data points, one extra graph and more accurate error bars. No changes to result

Quantum black holes from null expansion operators

Using a recently developed quantization of spherically symmetric gravity coupled to a scalar field, we give a construction of null expansion operators that allow a definition of general, fully dynamical quantum black holes. These operators capture the intuitive idea that classical black holes are defined by the presence of trapped surfaces, that is surfaces from which light cannot escape outward. They thus provide a mechanism for classifying quantum states of the system into those that describe quantum black holes and those that do not. We find that quantum horizons fluctuate, confirming long-held heuristic expectations. We also give explicit examples of quantum black hole states. The work sets a framework for addressing the puzzles of black hole physics in a fully quantized dynamical setting.Comment: 5 pages, version to appear in CQ

Dynamic attentional modulation of vision across space and time after right hemisphere stroke and in ageing

This article is available open access and is shared under a Creative Commons licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/). Copyright @ 2012 Elsevier Ltd.Introduction - Attention modulates the availability of sensory information to conscious perception. In particular, there is evidence of pathological, spatial constriction of the effective field of vision in patients with right hemisphere damage when a central task exhausts available attentional capacity. In the current study we first examined whether this constriction might be modulated across both space and time in right hemisphere stroke patients without neglect. Then we tested healthy elderly people to determine whether non-pathological ageing also leads to spatiotemporal impairments of vision under conditions of high attention load. Methods - Right hemisphere stroke patients completed a task at fixation while attempting to discriminate letters appearing in the periphery. Attentional load of the central task was modulated by increasing task difficulty. Peripheral letters appeared simultaneously with the central task or at different times (stimulus onset asynchronies, SOAs) after it. In a second study healthy elderly volunteers were tested with a modified version of this paradigm. Results - Under conditions of high attention load right hemisphere stroke patients have a reduced effective visual field, over a significantly extended ‘attentional blink’, worse for items presented to their left. In the second study, older participants were unable to discriminate otherwise salient items across the visual field (left or right) when their attention capacity was loaded on the central task. This deficit extended temporally, with peripheral discrimination ability not returning to normal for up to 450 msec. Conclusions - Dynamically tying up attention resources on a task at fixation can have profound effects in patient populations and in normal ageing. These results demonstrate that items can escape conscious detection across space and time, and can thereby impact significantly on visual perception in these groups.The European Commission, Brunel University and the Wellcome Trust

Centripetal Forces in China's Economic Takeoff

This paper uses provincial time series data from the People's Republic of China to empirically investigate two propositions relating to economic development: (i) that economic takeoff--or an acceleration in economic growth--is associated with inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), possibly through technological transfer; and (ii) that takeoff is accompanied, at least in the short term, by widening income inequality. The results indicate that FDI flows have increased the rate of convergence in per capita incomes across China's provinces. However, the pattern of FDI, which has gone mainly to the relatively wealthy provinces, has caused different provinces to converge toward different steady states. . Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund